Published: Apr 18, 2024 at 12:19 PM
Dan Parr
Original Content Editor, Draft Strategy
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With the finish line of the pre-draft buildup coming into view, here's my final projection for how Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft (April 25-27 in Detroit) will play out.
Pick
1
Chicago Bears
(via CAR)
Caleb Williams
USC · QB · Junior
There’s no suspense here. All signs point to the Bears picking Williams, who will be a king in Chicago if he comes anywhere close to living up to the hype.
Pick
2
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels
LSU · QB · Senior
The buzz continues to build in the Heisman Trophy winner’s favor at No. 2, and don’t be surprised if the Commanders aggressively move to upgrade Daniels’ supporting cast via the draft (more on that in a bit).
Pick
3
New England Patriots
Drake Maye
North Carolina · QB · Sophom*ore (RS)
Barring a jaw-dropping trade offer they can’t refuse, the Patriots appear likely to stick and pick the top remaining quarterback on their board. It might take some time for New England to get back to its winning ways, but Maye has the tools to develop into the franchise passer the team badly needs.
Pick
4
Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State · WR · Junior
GM Monti Ossenfort is not afraid to work the phones and move up or down the board. He proved that in his first draft on the job. If a team wants to vault to No. 4 for a quarterback, I’m sure he’ll be all ears. In this scenario, he stays put and gives Kyler Murray a WR1.
Pick
5
Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy
Michigan · QB · Junior
PROJECTED TRADE WITH LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
It looks like McCarthy is nearly a lock to go somewhere between picks 3 and 11. The Vikings could sit back and wait for him at No. 11, but that seems like a huge risk to take if they want to get one of the top four quarterbacks off the board. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah packages his two first-rounders to go get the national title winner, who lands in the perfect place.
Pick
6
New York Giants
Malik Nabers
LSU · WR · Junior
The Giants elect to run it back with Daniel Jones as the QB1, but they finally find him a lifeline in the form of a true No. 1 receiver. Some rate Nabers as the top pass catcher in this year’s draft.
Pick
7
Tennessee Titans
I’m not getting “foregone conclusion” vibes in this draft, beyond Caleb Williams going to the Bears, but the Titans filling their massive void at left tackle with the seventh pick? That almost feels like too good of a fit to be true.
Pick
8
Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner
Alabama · Edge · Junior
No team has a lower QB pressure rate than the Falcons -- at 23.7 percent -- since 2016 (the dawn of the Next Gen Stats era). GM Terry Fontenot adds some much-needed explosiveness to Raheem Morris’ defense.
Pick
9
Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze
Washington · WR · Senior
GM Ryan Poles goes all-in on providing his rookie quarterback with an all-star cast at receiver. Trading down could be appealing, but with only a year remaining on soon-to-be 32-year-old Keenan Allen’s contract, Odunze is too promising to pass up.
Pick
10
New York Jets
Brock Bowers
Georgia · TE · Junior
The Jets put themselves in position to take the best player available with their moves to address the offensive line earlier this offseason. Bowers can be the Robin to Garrett Wilson’s Batman in Gotham.
Pick
11
Los Angeles Chargers
Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State · OT · Senior
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
In Jim Harbaugh’s world, the fearsome Fuaga might as well be the top player in the draft (other than his former QB, of course). Jim trades down and still feels like he won the lottery by landing a road-grading right tackle.
Pick
12
Denver Broncos
Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo · CB · Senior
The Broncos decide to wait to make their move for a quarterback. They would probably love to trade down from this spot and add some draft capital, but if they can’t find a partner, pairing Mitchell with Pat Surtain II in the pursuit of slowing down division foe Patrick Mahomes figures to be an attractive option.
Pick
13
Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Penix Jr.
Washington · QB · Senior
Sensing that the Seahawks could be eyeing a reunion between Penix and his UW offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb, who is now Seattle’s OC) at No. 16, the Raiders decide they need to strike for their quarterback.
Pick
14
New Orleans Saints
JC Latham
Alabama · OT · Junior
New Orleans has a glaring need at offensive tackle, given Trevor Penning’s struggles and Ryan Ramczyk’s health. There’s no one more powerful at the position in this year’s draft than Latham.
Pick
15
Indianapolis Colts
Terrion Arnold
Alabama · CB · Sophom*ore (RS)
Trading up for an offensive weapon will be tempting as the Colts look to build around Anthony Richardson, but the price could be too rich for Chris Ballard’s taste. Arnold should eventually become the CB1 in Indy.
Pick
16
Troy Fautanu
Washington · OL · Senior
With Penix no longer an option, the ‘Hawks take the best Washington player still available. Fautanu can play anywhere on the line, but he figures to start out on the interior under new head coach Mike Macdonald.
Pick
17
Washington Commanders
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
As NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah recently suggested, first-year GM Adam Peters could be willing to take a big swing to help protect his new quarterback. He gives up a pair of second-rounders (Nos. 36 and 40) to land Fashanu, who returns to his old stomping grounds in D.C. With the top two corners getting snatched up, the Jaguars are willing to move down.
Pick
18
Cincinnati Bengals
Amarius Mims
Georgia · OT · Junior
The Bengals like having large human beings at tackle to protect Joe Burrow (SEE: Orlando Brown, 6-foot-8, 345 pounds; Trent Brown, 6-8, 355). With Brown on a one-year deal, Cincinnati prepares for the future at right tackle by adding, you guessed it, a 6-8, 340-pounder in Mims.
Pick
19
Los Angeles Rams
Byron Murphy II
Texas · DT · Junior
No man will replace Aaron Donald on his own, but Murphy and Kobie Turner would combine to give the Rams a formidable duo up the middle. Thing is, GM Les Snead might have to trade up to get the buzzworthy prospect.
Pick
20
Pittsburgh Steelers
Graham Barton
Duke · C · Senior
Barton played mostly left tackle for the Blue Devils, but he can fill Pittsburgh’s void in the pivot from Day 1. This could be the Steelers' next great center.
Pick
21
Miami Dolphins
Jared Verse
Florida State · Edge · Senior
Landing Verse at No. 21 could be one of the draft’s biggest steals. With Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb recovering from injuries and Andrew Van Ginkel departing this offseason, the Dolphins are thrilled to find a safe edge rusher with big-time power still waiting to hear his name called.
Pick
22
Philadelphia Eagles
Laiatu Latu
UCLA · Edge · Senior
I won’t be surprised at all if Latu goes much higher than 22nd. It might just depend on which teams are comfortable with their medical evaluations of him. A neck injury suffered during Latu's time at Washington once put the edge menace's career in doubt, but he was cleared to play at UCLA and absolutely flourished. GM Howie Roseman sees too much value to pass up last season’s FBS leader in tackles for loss (21.5).
Pick
23
Los Angeles Chargers
(via CLE through HOU)
Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU · WR · Junior
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
I’m piggybacking my colleague Gennaro Filice’s recent mock here (the man knows his stuff). This scenario is the best of both worlds for the Chargers. They get to fulfill Jim Harbaugh’s desire for a rugged offensive lineman with their first pick, and then they address their most glaring need with a receiver who could easily outperform his draft slotting.
Pick
24
Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)
Longtime offensive line coach Mike Solari has a new pupil to mold. Guyton isn’t the most experienced prospect, but he’s dripping with potential. If he can play with more strength, he should become a quality starter at one of the tackle spots in Dallas.
Pick
25
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cooper DeJean
Iowa · DB · Junior
PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS
After trading down in a deal with the Commanders that netted them picks 36 and 40, the Jaguars use one of the picks acquired in that deal (No. 40) and their original second-rounder (No. 48) to get the corner they need in DeJean. So, despite moving back, Jacksonville still has a chance to land a playmaking DB and another potential starter before the first 40 picks are made. As for the Packers, they can control the board on Day 2 with four second-round picks (Nos. 40, 41, 48 and 58) and two third-rounders (Nos. 88 and 91).
Pick
26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chop Robinson
Penn State · Edge · Junior
The pass rusher formerly known as “Pork Chop” provides the Bucs with juice off the edge. His production doesn’t jump off the page (11.5 sacks in three seasons), but his athleticism is eye-opening. He can be the long-term replacement for Shaquil Barrett.
Pick
27
Arizona Cardinals
(via HOU)
Nate Wiggins
Clemson · CB · Junior
Arizona hasn’t picked a cornerback in first round since striking gold with the selection of Patrick Peterson in 2011. It’s time to make that kind of investment in the position again. Wiggins is not a banger against the run, but he’s going to be a pest in coverage.
Pick
28
Buffalo Bills
Xavier Worthy
Texas · WR · Junior
The Bills could make an aggressive move up the board to find a new weapon for Josh Allen after parting with Stefon Diggs. If they stay put, snagging the 40-yard dash king to take the top off defenses and catch Allen's rockets would be exhilarating.
Pick
29
Detroit Lions
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama · CB · Junior
I had Kool-Aid going to Detroit in my first mock and I’m sticking with him here. The release of Cameron Sutton left the Lions thin at cornerback once again.
Pick
30
Baltimore Ravens
Mike Sainristil
Michigan · DB · Senior
Surprise! Yes, I know this is higher than most expect Sainristil to go. Do the Ravens care? Heck no. They’ve picked a Michigan player in three of the last four drafts, and you know Jim Harbaugh has already given a glowing review to his brother when it comes to the nickel corner’s abilities.
Pick
31
San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Morgan
Arizona · OT · Senior
The Niners have struggled to find reliable offensive line help in the draft since selecting Mike McGlinchey in the first round six years ago. Morgan gets an opportunity to compete for the right tackle job and learn from one of the OT greats, Trent Williams.
Pick
32
Kansas City Chiefs
Adonai Mitchell
Texas · WR · Junior
Getting Hollywood Brown was nice, but the Chiefs can’t be done adding pieces for Patrick Mahomes at receiver after the issues they had at the position last season, right? Andy Reid might be the perfect coach to maximize Mitchell’s WR1 potential.
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